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Euro zone business activity expanded at its fastest pace in almost a year last month as a resurgence in the bloc's dominant services industry more than offset a deeper downturn in manufacturing, a survey showed on Monday. That was its second month above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and the highest since May last year. The services PMI leapt to 53.3 from 51.5, above the flash estimate of 52.9 and its highest reading since last May. A sister survey released last week showed factory activity in the euro zone took a turn for the worse in April, highlighting the divergence between the two sectors. The composite future output index dipped only slightly from March's 61.6 - its highest since February 2022 - to 61.6.
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia Organizations: P Global, Service, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI Locations: March's, Hamburg
Patrick Pleul | Picture Alliance | Getty ImagesGermany's housebuilding sector has gone from bad to worse in recent months. "The housebuilding sector is, I would say, a little bit in a confidence crisis," Dominik von Achten, chairman of German building materials company Heidelberg Materials, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. In January both the current sentiment and expectations for the German residential construction sector fell to all-time lows, according to data from the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The business climate reading fell to a negative 59 points, while expectations dropped to negative 68.9 points in the month. Habeck pointed to higher interest rates as a key challenge for the economy, explaining that those had led to reduced investments, especially in the construction sector.
Persons: Patrick Pleul, Dominik von Achten, CNBC's, Klaus Wohlrabe, Robert Habeck, Wohlrabe, It's, Achten Organizations: Getty, Heidelberg Materials, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Climate Locations: Germany, Ifo, Heidelberg
A waiter picks up the terrace of the Zurich bar at Placa de Catalunya in Barcelona, Spain April 4, 2023. A PMI for the services sector rose to 48.7 from October's 47.8. "The sombre outlook is reinforced by the fifth consecutive monthly shrinkage in new business. An index measuring new business - a gauge of demand - was below 50 for a fifth month although it did rise to 46.7 from 45.6. The composite future output index rose to 56.0 from 55.6.
Persons: Nacho, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: Placa de, REUTERS, P Global, PMI, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: Zurich, Barcelona, Spain, October's, Hamburg
Euro zone factory downturn eased a touch in November -PMI
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
REUTERS/Ina Fassbender/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - The broad-based downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity eased slightly last month but the sector remained deeply rooted in contractionary territory, prompting factories to trim staffing levels for a sixth straight month. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 44.2 in November from October's 43.1, above a preliminary estimate of 43.8. An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Tuesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, climbed to 44.6 from 43.1. "November has not been the prettiest, and this does not refer only to the weather but also to the situation in the manufacturing sector of the euro zone," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. The employment index dropped to a low not seen since August 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic was cementing its grip on the world.
Persons: Ina Fassbender, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: ThyssenKrupp AG, REUTERS, P, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: German, Duisburg, October's, Hamburg
Fast forward two years, and German housebuilding looks like it's collapsing, putting pressure on both his hard-to-reach goal, but also the overall economy of the country. Over 22% of companies surveyed reported the cancellation of residential construction projects in Germany in October, a new record high. Expectations for the residential construction industry fell to what the Ifo described as an "exceptional low." "Things continue to go from bad to worse in Germany's construction sector. But it's also the jobs market that could be impacted by troubles in the homebuilding sector, Brzeski noted.
Persons: Soeren, Germany's Olaf Scholz, , Cyrus de la Rubia, Carsten Brzeski, Brzeski, Klaus Wohlrabe, Wohlrabe, it's Organizations: Getty, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Hamburg Commercial Bank, German Federal, Office, ING, CNBC, European Central Bank, ECB, European Commission Locations: downtown Wittenberg, Germany, Hamburg
London CNN —The European Central Bank (ECB) held off raising interest rates Thursday for the first time in 15 months as evidence mounts of a deepening economic downturn in Europe. The ECB kept the benchmark interest rate in the 20 countries that use the euro at 4%, its highest level since the launch of the currency in 1999. The decision to pause after 10 consecutive rate hikes follows a series of data showing a continued decline in inflation and a further slowdown in economic activity. A survey published Tuesday of euro area companies in manufacturing and services showed a steep decline in output as demand weakened. “There is much to suggest that a recession in Germany is well underway,” de la Rubia said this week.
Persons: , Cyrus de la Rubia, la Rubia Organizations: London CNN, European Central Bank, ECB, Companies, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Global, PMI Locations: Europe, Hamburg, ” Germany, Europe’s, Germany
HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good guide to overall economic health, fell to 46.5 in October from September's 47.2, its lowest since November 2020. "In the euro zone, things are moving from bad to worse," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. "We wouldn't be caught off guard to see a mild recession in the euro zone in the second half of this year with two back to back quarters of negative growth." While the 20-country euro zone will narrowly dodge a recession, according to a recent Reuters poll, the economy was expected to have only flatlined last quarter and will do the same again in the current one. The composite employment index fell to 49.4 from 50.8.
Persons: Sarah Meyssonnier, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Carrefour, REUTERS, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Service, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Montesson, Paris, France, September's, Hamburg
The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 45.8 in October from September's 46.4, below the 46.7 forecast by economists. A reading below the 50 level points to a contraction in business activity. The composite PMI index tracks the services and manufacturing sectors that together account for more than two-thirds of the German economy, Europe's biggest. Business activity in the services sector was unexpectedly back in contraction territory after slight growth the month before, with the reading falling to 48.0 from 50.3 in September. Well there are, especially in the manufacturing sector," said de la Rubia, pointing to improvements in new orders and output, as well as an increase in stocks of purchases.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Cyrus de la Rubia, la, Miranda Murray, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany, September's, Hamburg
HCOB's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, nudged up to 47.2 in September from August's 46.7. Wednesday's survey showed the downturn was broad-based as, like in August, output declined in both services and manufacturing. "The HCOB Composite PMI for the euro zone did rebound a bit. A PMI covering the bloc's dominant services industry remained sub-50 for a second month but did rise to 48.7 from 47.9. Indeed, euro zone firms bulked up their teams at a faster pace than in August.
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: P Global, August's, PMI, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: Germany, France, Hamburg
German service sector activity edges up in Sept -PMI
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
A steel worker of ThyssenKrupp stands amid sparks of raw iron coming from a blast furnace at a ThyssenKrupp steel factory in Duisburg, western Germany, November 14, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Oct 4 (Reuters) - Activity in Germany's services sector edged up slightly in September, following a drop the month before, a survey showed on Wednesday. The HCOB final services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in September from to 47.3 in August, rising back above the 50 level that signals growth in activity. "The recently started downturn in the German services sector looks like it is sticking around for a while," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. The composite PMI index, which comprises services and manufacturing, rose to 46.4 in September from 44.6 in August, signalling a softer rate of contraction of private sector business activity overall.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Cyrus de la Rubia, la Rubia, Maria Martinez, Hugh Lawson 私 Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Hamburg Commercial Bank Locations: ThyssenKrupp, Duisburg, Germany, Hamburg
Euro zone economy likely contracted in Q3
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
HCOB's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, nudged up to 47.2 in September from August's 46.7. Wednesday's survey showed the downturn was broad-based as, like in August, output declined in both services and manufacturing. "The HCOB Composite PMI for the euro zone did rebound a bit. In one bright spot, services firms increased headcount at a faster pace last month than they did in August. Indeed, euro zone firms bulked up their teams at a faster pace than in August.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, P Global, August's, PMI, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: Duisburg, Germany, France, Hamburg
A steel worker of ThyssenKrupp walks in front of a blast furnace at a ThyssenKrupp steel factory in Duisburg, western Germany, November 14, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Euro zone manufacturing activity remained mired in a deep and broad-based downturn last month, according to a survey which showed on Monday that demand kept shrinking at a pace rarely surpassed since the data was first collected in 1997. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, dipped to 43.4 in September from August's 43.5, matching a preliminary estimate. An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Wednesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, fell to 43.1 from 43.4. The new orders index did rise last month, to 39.2 from August's 39.0, but it remained firmly below the breakeven mark.
Persons: Wolfgang Rattay, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, P, PMI, Hamburg Commercial Bank, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Duisburg, Germany, August's, Hamburg, France, Spain, Italy
Euro zone economy likely contracted this quarter
  + stars: | 2023-09-22 | by ( Jonathan Cable | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The euro zone economy is likely contract this quarter and won't return to growth anytime soon, a survey showed, as the dampening effect of central banks' long campaign of interest rates rises becomes clearer. HCOB's flash euro zone Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 47.1 in September from August's 33-month low of 46.7. "The increase in the ECB key interest rate by 450 basis points in the meantime is slowing down the economy in all euro countries." OUT OF ORDERSeptember's fall in overall activity in the euro zone came despite firms barely increasing their charges. The services PMI rose to 48.4 from 47.9 but spent its second month below the breakeven mark this year.
Persons: Christoph Weil, France's, Andrew Bailey, Sarah Meyssonnier, Bert Colijn, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, August's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, ECB, PMI, European Union, Bank of England, Carrefour, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ING, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Germany, Commerzbank, Europe's, Britain, Montesson, Paris, France, Spain
REUTERS/Eric Gaillard Acquire Licensing RightsPARIS, Sept 22 (Reuters) - France's dominant services sector contracted at an even sharper pace in September, a monthly survey showed on Friday, as falls in demand and new orders weighed on the euro zone's second-biggest economy. The flash September manufacturing PMI number came in at 43.6 points - also much lower than the 46.0 points in August and way off a Reuters poll forecast of an unchanged level. The August composite flash PMI number comprising both the services and manufacturing sectors stood at 43.5 points, down from the final 46.0 August composite number and well below a Reuters poll forecast of 46.0. Business activity has fallen sharply in both the service and manufacturing sectors in September, mainly due to a slump in demand for French products and services. It is important to note however that this will be almost entirely driven by the public service sector," Liebke added.
Persons: Eric Gaillard, Norman Liebke, Liebke, Benoit Van Overstraeten, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, P Global, Commercial Bank, French National Bank, Thomson Locations: Nice, France
Euro zone August downturn deeper than was thought
  + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The decline in euro zone business activity accelerated faster than initially thought last month as the bloc's dominant services industry fell into contraction, according to a survey which suggests the bloc could drop into recession. REUTERS/Jon Nazca Acquire Licensing RightsThe headline services PMI sank to 47.9 from 50.9, below the flash 48.3 estimate, as indebted consumers feeling the pinch from increased borrowing fees and high living costs reined in spending. The new business index, a gauge of demand, dropped further below breakeven to 46.7 from 48.2, a low not seen since early 2021. Still, the downturn in manufacturing eased last month, suggesting the worst may be over for the bloc's beleaguered factories, a sister survey showed on Friday. The composite employment index dropped to 50.2 from 51.4.
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Jon Nazca, Employers weren't, Jonathan Cable, Hugh Lawson Organizations: P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, REUTERS, PMI, Employers, Thomson Locations: July's, Hamburg, Ronda, Spain
REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach Acquire Licensing RightsBERLIN, Aug 23 (Reuters) - German business activity contracted at the fastest pace for more than three years in August, a preliminary survey showed on Wednesday. A deepening downturn in manufacturing output was accompanied by a renewed contraction in services activity. Business activity in the services sector contracted for the first time in eight months. The manufacturing PMI rose to 39.1 in August from 38.8 in July but remained deeply in contraction territory, the survey showed. There was an increase in inflationary pressures, driven by accelerated cost and price increases in the service sector.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Maria Martinez, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Services, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Hamburg
That’s the lowest reading since May 2020, when the country began gradually lifting stringent pandemic restrictions. “Any hope that the service sector might rescue the German economy has evaporated. The figures add to evidence that Germany’s economy is sputtering again after it emerged from a winter recession in the second quarter by the narrowest of margins. “The downward pressure on the economy of the eurozone in August stems mainly from the German service sector,” said De la Rubia. “Activity has started to shrink while prices have shot up again, even picking up pace,” De la Rubia said.
Persons: stoking, , Cyrus de la Rubia, , De la, , De la Rubia, ” Andrew Kenningham Organizations: London CNN —, Hamburg Commercial Bank, P Global, P, European Central Bank, ECB, Capital Economics Locations: London CNN — Germany, Hamburg, Germany, Europe,
Economic data in Europe just went from bad to worse
  + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
An emloyee works on the assembling of a brake caliper for an electric vehicle in Dueren, western Germany. A reading above 50 marks an expansion in activity, while one below 50 marks a contraction. If pandemic months are excluded, the latest numbers point to the lowest reading since April 2013. In terms of the breakdown between services and manufacturing, the former dropped to a 30-month low at 48.3 and the manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 42.7 in July to 43.7 this month. "Considering the PMI figures in our GDP [growth] nowcast leads us to the conclusion that the euro zone will shrink by 0.2% in the third quarter," Rubia added.
Persons: Dow Jones, Cyrus de la, Rubia Organizations: Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI Locations: Dueren, Germany, Hamburg
NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Lean times faced by many U.S. and European companies may last longer than expected as they try to sell off their bulging inventories in an economic climate where demand is stalling. Full-to-bursting warehouses means fewer orders for manufacturers, which translates into lower levels of business activity and, ultimately, weaker growth. Now, global demand is falling as borrowing costs have risen, so companies have started running down stocks. Maersk controls about one-sixth of global container trade, transporting goods for a host of major retailers and consumer goods companies. Refinitiv I/B/E/S data shows U.S. and European companies are expected to report their worst quarterly results in years.
Persons: Vincent Clerc, Hugo Boss, Moller, Stanley Black, Decker, destocking, Levi Strauss, Rajiv Sharma, Arun Sundaram, Guillermo Novo, Cyrus de la Rubia, Siddharth Cavale, David Gaffen, Josephine Mason, Mark John, Jonathan Cable, Helen Reid, Jane Merriman Organizations: U.S, Maersk, Heineken, 3M, . Bureau of Labor Statistics, CFRA Research, Retailers, BASF, London, Rutgers University, Hamburg Commercial Bank, doesn't, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, U.S, United States, Ashland, Hamburg, New York, London
There was considerable weakness seen in Germany, Europe's largest economy, while France and Italy, the second- and third-largest euro zone economies, also recorded marked deteriorations since June. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, fell to 42.7 in July from June's 43.4, its lowest since May 2020 and matching a preliminary reading. "It looks like the manufacturing recession is here to stay in the euro zone," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. Demand fell sharply even though sinking input costs - which fell at the fastest pace since mid-2009 due to increased competition among suppliers - allowed factories to slash their charges. The output prices index was down to a near 14-year low of 45.0 from 47.0.
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: P Global, Hamburg Commercial Bank, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Germany, Europe's, France, Italy, HCOB's, June's, Hamburg
watch nowThe International Monetary Fund on Tuesday raised its growth forecast for the global economy, turning slightly more positive despite slowing momentum from China. In the latest update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF raised its 2023 global growth prediction by 0.2 percentage point to 3%, up from 2.8% in its April assessment. "The global economy continues to gradually recover from the pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In China, the recovery following the reopening of its economy shows signs of losing steam amid continued concerns about the property sector, with implications for the global economy," Gourinchas said. This is due to weaker manufacturing output and lower growth performance during the first quarter of this year, the IMF said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Cyrus de la Rubia Organizations: Monetary Fund, Economic, IMF, Hamburg Commercial Bank Locations: China, Ukraine, U.S, United States, Beijing, Germany
Euro zone business activity contracts in June
  + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone business activity slipped into contractionary territory last month in a broad-based downturn across the bloc's dominant services industry and a deepening decline of factory output, a survey showed. HCOB's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, slumped to 49.9 in June from May's 52.8. The slowdown in business activity growth was accompanied by a weaker rise in new business, lower price increases and a decline in business expectations," said Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. The services new business index was barely above breakeven at a five-month low of 51.0. In one bright spot pricing pressures eased significantly in June with the composite output prices index falling to 53.8 from 56.4, its lowest since March 2021.
Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: P Global, May's, PMI, European Central Bank, REUTERS, Hamburg Commercial Bank, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Hamburg
London CNN —European policymakers will have breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as a key measure of inflation revealed the first drop in prices since 2020. That’s the first time producer prices — which feed into prices paid by consumers — have notched a year-on-year decline since December 2020. The drop was driven by a steep 13.3% annual fall in producer prices in the energy sector, the data showed. According to June survey data published Tuesday, factory output in the euro area recorded its steepest fall since October. The euro area economy slipped into a recession over the winter, and there have been further signs of weakness in the April-June period.
Persons: who’ve, ” Cyrus de la Rubia Organizations: London CNN, Bank’s, ECB, Producers, Hamburg Commercial Bank Locations: Hamburg
Euro zone business growth stalls in June -flash PMI
  + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Euro zone business growth virtually stalled this month as the downturn in manufacturing deepened while activity in the bloc's dominant services industry barely expanded, a survey showed on Friday. HCOB's flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the bloc, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, sank to a five-month low of 50.3 in June from May's 52.8. That was barely above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction and below all forecasts in a Reuters poll which had predicted a more modest decline to 52.5. An index measuring output, which feeds into the composite PMI, fell to 44.6 from 46.4. Last week the ECB raised euro zone borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years and said stubbornly high inflation all but guaranteed another move next month and likely beyond that too.
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Susan Fenton Organizations: P Global, May's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, Reuters, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Hamburg
While still comfortably above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction it was below a preliminary estimate for 53.3. A PMI covering the services sector dropped to 55.1 from April's one-year high of 56.2, below the 55.9 flash reading. A manufacturing PMI released last week showed the downturn in factory activity deepened as demand slumped despite prices falling. "The services sector is being supported by the strong labour market, rising wages and a tourism sector that is flourishing throughout Europe," said de la Rubia. "The latter is confirmed by the new export business PMI, which includes tourism-related demand and remained near its series peak in May."
Persons: Cyrus de la Rubia, Jonathan Cable, Toby Chopra Organizations: P Global, April's, Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: Hamburg, Europe
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